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Officially, it is the halfway mark of the 2005 season but, unofficially,spurs football shirts, several clubs are already preparing for September. Who have been the movers and shakers in the first half of the season? And who can we expect to be there when the whips are cracking at finals time? The AFL Record’s special Mid-Season Report retraces the first half of the season and predicts what’s ahead.
THE STORY SO FAR…
The closest season in years or a one-horse race? That’s the big question after the opening 11 games of the 2005 AFL premiership season. As the 16 teams turn the corner for the race to September, the West Coast Eagles sit two games clear at the top of the ladder.
But while the Eagles have slipped a couple of lengths clear, the rest of the field is yet to sort itself out.
And when the bookies start to complain that punters are keeping their cash pocketed with form almost impossible to track, you know it’s getting tough to pick a winner. The frustration for tipsters doesn’t look like improving in the short term.
Just look at last year’s four preliminary finalists. Port Adelaide and Brisbane have won only four apiece, but may have turned the corner. After a strong start, Geelong has lost its past two, while St Kilda’s season is yet to click into gear.
Conversely, 2004 wooden spooner Richmond, under new coach Terry Wallace, won more games in the first six weeks of 2005 than in all of 2004 and remains firmly in line for an unlikely finals berth.
It’s a been a great season – Bulldog Brad Johnson’s remarkable ‘volley’ at the Gabba, Luke McPharlin’s skyscraper in the western derby and the stunning return of Jonathan Brown in round six among the highlights.
There have been moments of sadness (Melbourne’s emotional farewell to Troy Broadbridge after his tragic death in the Boxing Day tsunami), moments of reflection (Carlton’s final game at Optus Oval) and moments of controversy (the bumping of Nick Riewoldt at the Gabba, Gary Ablett’s induction to the Australian Football Hall of Fame and debate over the use of caffeine tablets).
But, best of all, there are 15 weeks to go.
THE STANDOUTS
Chris Judd became West Coast’s first Brownlow Medallist last year, and there’s every chance the Eagles will make it two out of two in 2005. Captain Ben Cousins is a warm favourite for the medal after leading the Eagles to a 10-1 record, their best start to a season since 1991.
Cousins is fourth in the competition for disposals, and continues to shine in the AFL’s most potent midfield that includes Judd, Chad Fletcher, Daniel Kerr, the underrated Michael Braun and recruit Tyson Stenglein, all working at the feet of outstanding ruckman Dean Cox.
Another player who calls Subiaco home, Fremantle’s Matthew Pavlich, has also made a scorching start to the season. Playing at centre half-forward but with the mobility of a midfielder, Pavlich leads the competition in marks. He has also booted 20 goals.
The 2001 draft continues to be one of the great talking points in football. Judd has long been considered the pick of the crop, but St Kilda’s Luke Ball and emerging Hawk youngster Luke Hodge are closing the gap. Hodge’s teammate and clearance king Sam Mitchell has also started 2005 strongly, as has evergreen Bulldog on-baller Scott West, rangy Demon midfielder Travis Johnstone and Tiger spearhead Matthew Richardson.
THE SURPRISE PACKETS
It’s hard to categorise Hawthorn full-forward Mark Williams. At just 180cm and 82kg, he fits the profile of a small forward, but plays a traditional leading full-forward role.
Hawk fans don’t really care. The player known for his ‘shotgun’ celebration and long flowing locks returned minus the hair and gun in 2005, but packing a new form of ammo – goals.
In the previous three years and 33 games with the Hawks, Williams had returned a modest 44 goals. But with 48 goals under his belt already this year, the West Australian is a runaway favourite to win the Coleman Medal. If Williams continues his prolific form, he will become the first small forward since Hawk great Leigh Matthews (1975) to claim the honour.
Another player with a Hawthorn connection is just tailing Williams for the honour of the most improved player of 2005. Shane Tuck, the son of Hawthorn legend Michael Tuck, was almost discarded by Richmond at the end of 2004, but has firmly established himself alongside Mark Coughlan in the heart of the Richmond engine room where he is averaging more than 20 touches a game.
It’s almost impossible to split Bulldog pair Lindsay Gilbee and Daniel Cross for the club’s ‘most improved’ honours to the halfway point of the season. Cross trails only teammate Scott West and Hawk young gun Luke Hodge in total possessions this season while Gilbee leads the side in kicks but, more impressively, is the Dogs’ leading rebounder and has kicked 14 goals.
Others to take significant steps forward in 2005 include much-maligned Magpie Rhyce Shaw, arguably the side’s most consistent player this year, and Demon midfielder/forward Cameron Bruce.
GONE BUT NOT FORGOTTEN
The fall of last year’s Grand Finalists Port Adelaide and the Brisbane Lions has been one of the stories of the year. The two most consistent sides of recent seasons showed last week they are not spent forces after morale-boosting road wins – the Lions stunned Freo while Port cruised home over the Saints in Launceston. But both face a huge task to again enter premiership calculations.
The last time the Grand Finalists did not make the finals in the following season was in 1963 when Essendon and Carlton finished fifth and sixth respectively. Both clubs have been struck with similar ills – aging lists, the departure or retirement of important players and key injuries.
From the side that contested the 2004 Grand Final, the Lions started the season without Alastair Lynch, Shaun Hart, Craig McRae (all retired), Simon Black, Jonathan Brown (injured/suspended) and Brad Scott and Richard Hadley (both injured). Luke Power has also been sidelined, while Nigel Lappin has struggled for fitness.
Forced to turn to a bunch of mostly untried youngsters, coach Leigh Matthews has watched the walls of the Gabba fortress tumble with five losses from six home games – the same number of defeats that Brisbane had suffered there in the previous three years combined.
Port Adelaide lost key on-ballers Josh Carr and Jarrad Schofield to Fremantle in the trade period. Injuries to All-Australian centre half-back Chad Cornes, continuing knee problems for Roger James, a posterior cruciate ligament strain to Shaun Burgoyne and Byron Pickett’s five-week suspension have also impacted on the Power’s premiership defence.
TURNING IT AROUND
Four AFL sides started 2005 with new coaches. To varying degrees, all four have shown improvement. It’s hard to split the efforts of Terry Wallace (Richmond) and Neil Craig (Adelaide),football retro shirts, but the Crows’ man probably has his nose in front at this stage of the season.
Widely recognised as the competition’s fittest combination, Adelaide, led brilliantly by Mark Ricciuto, is sitting pretty in third spot after 11 rounds.
After injuries reduced the Crows to ghosts of themselves in 2004, Craig has sparked the midfield unit of Ricciuto, Simon Goodwin and Andrew McLeod, but is spreading the load through big improvers such as Martin Mattner, Brent Reilly and Hayden Skipworth, while the imposing Ben Rutten appears to progress almost by the week.
Wallace’s achievements are no less impressive. He has taken the 2004 wooden-spooner, turned over a dozen players, given the side an attacking focus and reaped the rewards.
The Tigers are well placed to make their first finals appearance since 2001, although the loss of Nathan Brown for the season may impact on the run home.
Rodney Eade has also made a successful return to the coaching ranks with the Western Bulldogs. Limited activity in the trade and draft periods showed Eade has plenty of faith in the youngsters at his disposal, and his decision has been vindicated.
The defence remains shaky, but the Dogs have had a far more positive attacking focus. However, like Richmond, injuries to key players Luke Darcy and Chris Grant could prove telling as the Bulldogs strive to break into the eight.
Alastair Clarkson was a surprise choice as Hawthorn coach but he’s guided the Hawks to three impressive wins. When it is switched on, Hawthorn has looked the equal of the best sides.
Despite the emergence of exciting players such as Williams, Hodge, high draft pick Lance Franklin and Chance Bateman, finals look beyond the Hawks in 2005.
STEADY AS SHE GOES
After four years of domination for non-Victorian clubs, a trio of challengers emerged in 2004 to confront sides such as the Lions and Power. All three remain firmly entrenched in the race for the 2005 flag.
Best placed after 11 rounds is Melbourne. It’s hard to find a chink in the armour of Neale Daniher’s line-up, which has been boosted by the arrival of Brent Moloney and the rapid rise of youngsters Brock McLean and Colin Sylvia, who have added grunt to the midfield.
Close behind is Geelong, another side with an even spread of talent across the park and depth to spare. After falling at the second-last hurdle in 2004, Mark Thompson will be looking for delivery on his tireless efforts to lead the Cats out of the wilderness. But they’ve dropped the last two and won’t want to head into the mid-season break with a third successive loss.
The jury remains undecided about St Kilda. Tipped out by eventual premier Port Adelaide in a heart-stopper at AAMI Stadium last September, Grant Thomas has struggled to field his best side.
Arguably the most crucial loss has been Aaron Hamill, a vital leader and foil for key forwards Fraser Gehrig and Nick Riewoldt. Having lost 14 of their past 26 matches, Thomas will be desperate to find the form that led his Saints to within a kick of the 2004 Grand Final.
Don’t forget the Kangaroos. Dean Laidley’s side charged to top spot on the back of five wins to start the season. They’ve won only one of their past six, but at 6-5 in seventh spot, the Roos must still be included in top-eight discussions.
WHERE NEXT?
If there’s one side that epitomises the evenness of the competition in 2005,make shirts,
it’s Fremantle. At its best, Freo scored its first win at Skilled Stadium in nine attempts and thrashed Collingwood by 112 points. Conversely, Hawthorn thumped the Dockers at Subiaco by nine goals.
At 5-6 and just outside the eight, Chris Connolly’s side could just as easily finish in the top four as the bottom four. Who knows? It’s a similar story for the Swans. Maligned for a negative style in the early stages of the season, Paul Roos will be desperate to put the score on the board – figuratively and literally – in the road home.
If the forward combination of Barry Hall, Michael O’Loughlin and Ryan O’Keefe can click, the Swans could easily climb back into serious contention.
Can you hear that noise? It’s the black-and-white army starting to find its voice. After winning just one of its first eight, Collingwood has won its past three as Paul Licuria, Alan Didak, Shane O’Bree and Chris Tarrant start to hit form. With a sturdy defence led by James Clement and Shane Wakelin, the Magpies could be the big surprise packet in the run home.
For Essendon and Carlton, the task of rebuilding looks to be taking priority. At 4-7, Kevin Sheedy has declared youth to be the way of the future for the Bombers. The stunning debut of Andrew Lovett and development of Kepler Bradley and Jason Laycock shows he’s on the right track.
Likewise, Denis Pagan is likely to sift through the Blues’ list in the second half of the season to unearth any hidden gems with his side sitting on the bottom after just two wins and a draw.
WOUNDED IN ACTION
While the Tigers and Bulldogs have been two of the major success stories of the year, the clubs have also been at the heart of the biggest injury stories.
Few will forget the distressing images of Nathan Brown cradling his badly broken leg seconds after snapping it in two places under the weight of a smother by Demon Matthew Whelan. Brown, who was in career-best form for the resurgent Tigers, has been ruled out until 2006.
Another Tiger, improving on-baller Chris Hyde, endured a major scare after a sickening clash of heads with St Kilda’s Matt Maguire.
Diagnosed with a hairline skull fracture, Hyde missed three games while Maguire, incredibly, played seven days later.
Two years ago, Chris Grant’s 2003 season lasted less than 90 minutes after being cut down by a serious knee injury. In the opening quarter of the Dogs’ round six clash against Geelong at Skilled Stadium, another Bulldogs captain was cruelly cut down.
Luke Darcy’s seemingly innocuous stumble proved to be his final action of the 2005 season when he twisted his knee and snapped his anterior cruciate ligament. Darcy was the second skipper to become a long-term casualty during the first half of the year.
Nathan Buckley drove his fist into the MCG turf after he felt a twinge in his troublesome hamstring during the season-opener against the Bulldogs at the MCG. At 32 and with his career on the line, Buckley underwent surgery to repair a ruptured tendon on his hamstring.
The Magpie skipper has since returned to the training track and could be back for the last two months.
DRAFT REPORT CARD
It’s still too early to make a definitive statement about which clubs were the big winners from the 2004 NAB AFL Draft, but early signs suggest that clubs with priority picks have chosen wisely.
No. 1 selection Brett Deledio hasn’t missed a game for the Tigers and has improved with each outing. Ryan Griffen, the Bulldogs’ top pick at No. 3 overall,abidal t shirt, is also showing signs of being a ready-made senior player after making six appearances.
At the top of the class after round 11 is Hawthorn’s Lance ‘Buddy’ Franklin. Selected fifth overall, the remarkable athleticism (built like a ruckman, moves like a rover) of the young West Australian has set tongues wagging at Glenferrie.
Clubs have also found value further down the draft. Cain Ackland managed just 12 games in four years with Port Adelaide, but has almost doubled that tally at St Kilda after being selected 33rd overall in last year’s draft.
The rough and ready Justin Sherman was Brisbane’s third pick (45th overall) but has grasped his chance in an injury-weakened side to play eight games.
But Travis Cloke has been the steal of the 2004 NAB AFL Draft. Snared 39th overall with the Magpies’ father-son pick, he sits comfortably within the best three players to enter the competition this year.
THE RUN HOME
With form changing just as quickly as Peter ‘Spida’ Everitt’s hairstyle, it’s difficult to track which sides have the best run home. But some common elements emerge in examining the draw for rounds 12-22.
West Coast faces tough road trips to Geelong, the MCG to take on Melbourne and to Sydney, but with six games at Subiaco, look for the Eagles to stay firmly settled in the top two.
Of the other leading contenders,atletico madrid jacket, Melbourne faces four interstate trips, as do the Bulldogs, while the Crows also have a tough run with games against six of the top eight sides. Geelong’s draw looks favourable with eight games at Skilled Stadium or Telstra Dome and trips to the Gabba and SCG.
Richmond’s season will most likely be decided in a tough stretch from rounds 16-19 which includes away games against Port Adelaide and Fremantle. Likewise, Sydney faces a horror stretch with games against the top five between rounds 14 and 18, and Freo’s home run includes two trips to Adelaide, an away game in Sydney and tough home games against the Saints, Tigers and Eagles.
But there could be light at the end of the tunnel for St Kilda with 10 games in Melbourne, while the Lions’ hopes could come down to a round 22 clash against the Saints at Telstra Dome.
WE SAY
Home finals for the non-Victorian teams have played a crucial role in deciding the premiership in the past four years. Flying high in top spot, the Eagles are in the box seat to take out their third flag.
But West Coast will have to journey to the MCG to win the Grand Final, where other contenders Melbourne and Geelong will be right at home. Of the rest, look for the Saints and Magpies to charge home, while the Crows have emerged as the biggest dark horse.
2004 ladder
Port Adelaide
Brisbane Lions
St Kilda
Geelong
Melbourne
Sydney
West Coast
Essendon
Fremantle
Kangaroos
Carlton
Adelaide
Collingwood
Western Bulldogs
Hawthorn
Richmond
AFL Record 2005 prediction
Port Adelaide
St Kilda
Brisbane
Geelong
Sydney
Fremantle
West Coast
Melbourne
Essendon
Collingwood
Carlton
Kangaroos
Richmond
Adelaide
Western Bulldogs
Hawthorn
2005 ladder (after r11)
West Coast
Melbourne
Adelaide
Geelong
Richmond
Sydney
Kangaroos
St Kilda
Fremantle
Western Bulldogs
Port Adelaide
Brisbane Lions
Collingwood
Essendon
Hawthorn
Carlton
AFL Record prediction now!
West Coast
Geelong
Melbourne
Adelaide
St Kilda
Port Adelaide
Richmond
Sydney
Brisbane Lions
Fremantle
Kangaroos
Collingwood
Western Bulldogs
Hawthorn
Essendon
Carlton
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